Florida

When President-elect Barack Obama called Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen at her South Florida district office Wednesday, she hung up on him.

During the campaign, I wrote a number of diaries about changing electoral college maps, and how they fall into families.  I even projected how the map this year might turn out, based on extreme conditions.  We fell slightly short of the high-tide mark, but still saw considerable change--so much so that the map of this election really doesn't closely resemble any other.  The closest resemblance, all considered is to 1992, and the striking thing about it is that--aside from Montana and Omaha--the differences are almost entirely concentrated in the Southern and Border states:

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The United States saw dramatic increases in voting from traditionally underrepresented groups, including minorities and young voters, according to a new analysis released this week by Project Vote. If borne out by systematic analysis of the voter rolls, this change in the electorate is evidence of the power of successful voter registration drives and an indication of the strong inclination of voters to participate in the process when candidates address their issues.  read more »

H.R. 7301 would provide for the conveyence of a parcel of land held by the Bureau of Prisons of the Department of Justice in Miami Dade County, Florida, to facilitate the construction of a new educational facility that includes a secure parking area for the Bureau of Prisons....

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WASHINGTON — Fresh off President-elect Barack Obama's victory in Florida, Democrats are already looking to 2010 -- and Sen. Mel Martinez as a potential target.

Leaders of Florida's Democratic and Republican parties are already looking down the road to the 2010 elections and this much is clear: Barack Obama's victory has shaken both sides, for very different reasons.

There's a very early trial balloon being floated around Obama's tech policy that, while I don't want to admit it, is a somewhat worrisome sign.  While Obama has been a stalwart rhetorical supporter of net neutrality in his campaign, it's going to be the detailed implementation of the rule that will matter over the next four years.  Even the telecoms acknowledge that an open internet is an optimal outcome, and AT&T is apparently running a net neutral company because of its merger agreement, though they of course will undercut this position the moment they can through litigation or outright flouting of the law.  A strong FCC is going to be necessary to fight and enforce agreements across media policy, broadband, and spectrum, and telecoms, broadcasters and cable companies will fight this every step of the way.  So in looking at Obama's FCC transition, I'm worried.  read more »

TAMPA, Fla. -- In the four months before Election Day, the Barack Obama campaign registered 200,000 new voters in Florida, opened 50 state field offices, recruited 600,000 volunteers and allocated $40 million to fight John McCain. Under state director Steve Schale's direction, it amassed a grassroots organization so far-reaching that even Republican strategists say it will change the way politics is practiced in Florida.

Unlike the Versailles punditalkcrazy, which remains deeply enamored of the mythical "center-right country" they think America is, the real, actual American people--also known as the electorate, citizens, folks, what-have-you--are quite clear-eyed about why the Republicans lost this election: they're just too damn concervative!  The evidence from the post-election Democracy Corps report, "The Change Election Awaiting Change", could not be clearer [click image for wider version]:

That's how the American people see things.  But the majority of the subset of Republican voters disagrees [click image for wider version]:  read more »

As Media Matters pointed out, Brent Bozell is a little confused over whether Obama is a socialist or a Reaganite Conservative.  

Socialist (From the October 27 edition of Fox News' Fox & Friends):

   BOZELL: This is the arrogance, I think, of the Obama campaign, but it's a well-placed arrogance in the sense that they've gone through this entire campaign without being questioned seriously by anyone except for this news network, the Fox News network, which is why they studiously avoid the Fox News network. But when you go through the entirety of the campaign saying the kind of things that you're saying in the debates, where on, for every question, you've got a redistribution of wealth answer, where you've got socialism, where you've got the government controlling every aspect of life.

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Rose Pujol, a Cuban-American, pushed hard for Barack Obama's presidential victory. The Miami resident attended the Democratic convention, volunteered for the Florida campaign, and put up a life-size cutout of Obama in her Coconut Grove offices.

With Missouri and Nebraska-02 seemingly going to McCain, it seems the final electoral count will by Obama 364--174 McCain. Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. When looking to stretch the map, Indiana and North Carolina are the big prizes.

In the Senate, Democrats have 54 seats, plus Bernie Sanders, with four campaigns (Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota and Oregon) still undecided. We need three of the four to win the Employee Free Choice Act. One or two will probably be enough to pass Obama's legislation. There is still a lot of fighting to be done in the Senate. Expect a recount in more than one of these states.

In the House, we are at 258 seats, with AK-AL, CA-04, ID-01, NJ-03, WA-08 and, maybe, OH-15 still undecided. We seem on course to hit 260 exactly, as per my final House forecast.  read more »

National Popular Vote (98M votes in): Obama 51%-48% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 353--160 McCain


Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.

State	Reporting	Obama%	McCain%	EVs
Indiana	97%	50%	49%	11
Missouri	86%	48%	50%	11
Montana	34%	51%	46%	3

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National Popular Vote (11% Reporting): Obama 50%-40% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 264--147 McCain


Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.  read more »

South Floridians are likely to turn out in droves Tuesday to choose a new president, and if lines at the polls are tolerable, they have early voters to thank.