Georgia

Here's a Christmas and/or holiday gift that will bedevil your Republicans friends and family members. Especially those in the former Confederate state of Georgia, who think that the re-election of Saxby Chambliss is some sign from The Almighty that the Repub resurgence (or possibly The Rapture) is upon us.

Four years of Barack Obama and the Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate and House! That amount to 48 months, 208 weeks and 1,460 days. Help them mark each one in excruciating detail with this calendar. You do have to contribute $35 to the Obama campaign, but how can you put a price upon the joy of holiday giving?

Looking through recaps of last night's defeat in the Georgia Senate election, I agree with a lot of what Matt, Kos and Nate Silver have written.

Matt argues that it the country hasn't shifted so far to the left that a progressive has a decent shot in a statewide election in Georgia. Rather, we all knew it was always a longshot campaign, and people didn't want to invest in such a difficult election both after big wins in November and with so much other positive news for Democrats. Even Obama didn't invest himself too strongly, not wanting to risk political capital so recently after his election. So, Democratic turnout and activism were both down, making an already underdog campaign virtually impossible to win.  read more »

Well it's official.  Though Jim Martin is a Better Democrat, Chris and I have been pretty much AWOL on this race.  That was not by design, we just sort of didn't feel it.  Personally, my belief was that Obama wasn't willing to risk his political capital for Martin despite Martin's request, the Senate Democrats had just betrayed on Lieberman, so there was limited upside for progressives.  I like Martin a great deal, but Georgia is Georgia, and I couldn't in good conscience ask people to support someone ardently under these conditions.  read more »

November 2008 goes down in history at midnight tonight. And what a month it was. Last-minute surge to elect Barack Obama as president. Lots of Dems elected to U.S. House and a few newbies to the U.S. Senate. It took awhile for Alaska to count its votes, as they were transported to the capital by Todd Palin's sled dogs. Georgia has a run-off on Tuesday, with Democrat and Vietnam veteran Jim Martin and Republican chickenhawk Saxby Chambliss duking it out for the U.S. Senate. I've lost track of proceedings in Minnesota. Is Al Franken our first comedian/script-writer/author/radio host to be elected to the U.S. Senate? We've had actors, of course, and jocks, but never someone who wrote for Saturday Night Live. Guess I'll have to go check out the Minnesotans on leftyblogs.
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Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters

Weekly Voting Rights News Update

By Erin Ferns

Following an historic turnout in the 2008 election comes a flurry of election reform agendas from both sides of the battle over voting rights. Since November 4, some state lawmakers have seized on the success of early voting and Election Day Registration (EDR) as models for facilitating voter registration, while others appear to have been threatened by the heightened turnout and inspired to introduce restrictive voter ID and proof-of-citizenship bills for the 2009 legislative session.  read more »

Part three of my continuing series on the five congressional campaigns with undecided outcomes--Georgia Senate, Minnesota Senate, California 4th, Louisiana 4th, and Ohio 15th--can be found in the extended entry. There are important updates on all five campaigns.
As with before, here is the current balance of partisan power in Congress:

Senate
56 Democrats
40 Republicans
2 Independents
2 Undecided

House
257 Democrats
175 Republicans

 read more »

We've all seen this county-level map, showing how isolated the shift toward the GOP was since 2004, against the much broader pro-Obama tide:

But this past week, Professor Charles Franklin, of Political Arithmetik and Pollster.com, has added considerably more to the picture of how broad Obama's win was, first by looking at race, then by looking at different demographic groups.  Details on the flip.  read more »

Here is the current balance of power in Congress:

Senate
56 Democrats
40 Republicans
2 Independents
2 Undecided

House
257 Democrats
175 Republicans
3 Undecided

These numbers are a little bit different than the ones you might be seeing at most election results sites. The reason is that I am allocating the Alaska Senate race, Louisiana's 2nd congressional district, and Virginia's 5th congressional district all to Democrats. I don't consider the ongoing counting or runoffs in those districts to have any realistic chance to change the outcome.  read more »

Washington — Former Republican presidential contender Sen. John McCain heads to Georgia today to stump for embattled GOP colleague Sen. Saxby Chambliss, the opening salvo in the overtime phase of Georgia's U.S. Senate contest.

This has been a good election for map lovers.  The New York Times has a great set of graphics that shows not only results but changes from the previous four elections.

I've put together a few cartograms and gone back to the 1988 election to see what changes we've had in the last 20 years.

 read more »

Back in July, I compiled a list of legislation that would have passed in the 110th Congress if Democrats held eight more seats in the Senate and 20 more seats in the House. Here is the list (more in the extended entry:
Democratic trifecta legislation

1. H.R. 1591, U.S. Troop Readiness, Veterans' Care, Katrina Recovery, and Iraq Accountability Appropriations Act, 2007. Withdrawing between 100,000 to 120,000 of the 160,000 American military troops in Iraq.

 read more »

With Missouri and Nebraska-02 seemingly going to McCain, it seems the final electoral count will by Obama 364--174 McCain. Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. When looking to stretch the map, Indiana and North Carolina are the big prizes.

In the Senate, Democrats have 54 seats, plus Bernie Sanders, with four campaigns (Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota and Oregon) still undecided. We need three of the four to win the Employee Free Choice Act. One or two will probably be enough to pass Obama's legislation. There is still a lot of fighting to be done in the Senate. Expect a recount in more than one of these states.

In the House, we are at 258 seats, with AK-AL, CA-04, ID-01, NJ-03, WA-08 and, maybe, OH-15 still undecided. We seem on course to hit 260 exactly, as per my final House forecast.  read more »

Key Senate Races

State	Reporting	Dem %	Rep %
Alaska	66%	47%	48%
Georgia	98%	46%	50%
Minnesota	96%	42%	42%
Oregon	45%	47%	47%

Democratic seats: 55 54
Republican seats: 40
Independent seats: 2
Undecided: 4
Pickups: Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia

Update 7: Franken takes the lead: Franken now leads by 1,350 votes or so. Still, get ready for a recount.

Update 6: Minnesota margin now 1,465 votes: Get ready for a recount in Minnesota.  read more »

I'll have more detailed thoughts later, but right now I just want to say that I feel, well, humbled at the sublime face of promise and history. Something very good happened tonight. I'll write about it for ages. Right now, it is too overwhelming.

Obama looks good to win Indiana, Montana and Missouri. Jim Martin is in trouble in Georgia. Al Franken tails by 1% with 61% reporting. Better Democrats are on a roll in the House. This is an open thread.

National Popular Vote (11% Reporting): Obama 50%-40% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 264--147 McCain


Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.  read more »