Iowa

During the campaign, I wrote a number of diaries about changing electoral college maps, and how they fall into families.  I even projected how the map this year might turn out, based on extreme conditions.  We fell slightly short of the high-tide mark, but still saw considerable change--so much so that the map of this election really doesn't closely resemble any other.  The closest resemblance, all considered is to 1992, and the striking thing about it is that--aside from Montana and Omaha--the differences are almost entirely concentrated in the Southern and Border states:

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I am going to take a much-needed break for this holiday weekend: no posting from now until either Sunday night or Monday morning. With the election season and the early Iowa caucuses last year, there has not been a real break since last Thanksgiving. I won't even bring my computer to New York City, where I will be spending the next few days with my family.

Before I go, here are three basic principles for dealing with the new administration:

1. Can't stop pushing from the left: I recently heard an interesting anecdote about the 1993 budget fight. While it is probably the most progressive piece of sizable legislation to pass into law in two decades, it was a grueling fight--passing both branches of Congress by a single vote--and it still could have been better.

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Quoted with permission from an email discussion on Obama's political style, as based on David Sirota's post on the ghettoization of progressives in the appointment process, Pastor Dan of Street Prophets said the following, opened with a quote from a previous post of his:

I think this might be the right moment to introduce a useful distinction between political movements and communities:

The former is always goal- and often status-oriented; movements are driven toward particular ends, usually by large personalities, if not big egos. They require a great deal of coordination which almost inevitably turns into a desire for lockstep-action.

Communities, on the other hand, are focused on persons and the relationships they manifest.

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Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters

Weekly Voting Rights News Update

By Erin Ferns

Following an historic turnout in the 2008 election comes a flurry of election reform agendas from both sides of the battle over voting rights. Since November 4, some state lawmakers have seized on the success of early voting and Election Day Registration (EDR) as models for facilitating voter registration, while others appear to have been threatened by the heightened turnout and inspired to introduce restrictive voter ID and proof-of-citizenship bills for the 2009 legislative session.  read more »

The vote on Senator Lieberman's chairmanship will be held tomorrow. Even though it will take place behind closed doors and without a roll call vote, you can still make your voice heard by signing the Just Say No To Joe petition at FDL. Or, you could directly call a member of the Democratic Steering committee:

Debbie Stabenow, Michigan - Chairwoman (202) 224-4822
Harry Reid, Nevada (202) 224-3542
John Kerry, Massachusetts (202) 224-2742
Daniel Inouye, Hawaii (202) 224-3934
Robert Byrd, West Virginia (202) 224-3954
Edward Kennedy, Massachusetts (202) 224-4543
Joe Biden, Delaware (202) 224-5042
Patrick Leahy, Vermont (202) 224-4242
Chris Dodd, Connecticut (202) 224-2823
Tom Harkin, Iowa (202) 224-3254
Max Baucus, Montana (202) 224-2651
Richard Durbin, Illinois (202) 224-2152
Kent Conrad, North Dakota (202) 224-2043  read more »

With Missouri and Nebraska-02 seemingly going to McCain, it seems the final electoral count will by Obama 364--174 McCain. Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. When looking to stretch the map, Indiana and North Carolina are the big prizes.

In the Senate, Democrats have 54 seats, plus Bernie Sanders, with four campaigns (Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota and Oregon) still undecided. We need three of the four to win the Employee Free Choice Act. One or two will probably be enough to pass Obama's legislation. There is still a lot of fighting to be done in the Senate. Expect a recount in more than one of these states.

In the House, we are at 258 seats, with AK-AL, CA-04, ID-01, NJ-03, WA-08 and, maybe, OH-15 still undecided. We seem on course to hit 260 exactly, as per my final House forecast.  read more »

In my nearly final presidential forecast, I give the following breakdown:

1. Obama at 338 minimum: Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia.
   
2. Three toss-ups: Missouri, North Carolina and North Dakota are the only remaining toss-ups, in that polls yet to be released could still flip those states.

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Electoral College: Obama 291, McCain 160 Toss-up 87 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 51.6%--44.6% McCain


Dark Blue (273): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (18): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (87): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (28): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (132): McCain +6.0% or more

Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/28-11/02
States not shown are further either direction  read more »

As suspicious as I am of the motives of the conservatives jumping ship to support Obama (like Powell and Buckley), I am equally suspicious of the Cheney endorsement.  Much like Osama Bin Laden's 2004 "endorsement" of John Kerry, Cheney simply has to know how his endorsement would play.  So why do it?  All I can come up with is simple revenge.  Inside, I'll present the evidence.  read more »

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 7 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 7  read more »

Obama has inched up in the tracking polls for the third straight day, and he now leads by 6% according to Pollster.com with less than 77 hours before the polls close in all swing states. (Iowa is the last "swing state" to close, if you can call Iowa a swing state, anyway. Part of Montana closes at 11:00 p.m. eastern). So, McCain has to gain a full 1% on Obama every thirteen hours between now and then in order to win. That means that McCain has to flip about 100,000 voters every hour, or three every second, in order to tie Obama. Best of all, he can only target 70% of the electorate for these votes, because 30% is already spoken for.

More in the extended entry.  read more »

I'm really not temperamentally suited to being any better than any of you at making number-crunching prediction this close to the election.  Yeah, I'll toss some numbers out--maybe.  But my heart isn't it.  I'm not interested in being right.  I'm interested in dreaming big, making impossible predictions.  Which is where October 2006 comes in.  Because that's when I first let my thoughts about 2008 start to slip out... thoughts that had been seriously brewing since Katrina, 13 months earlier.  Because that's what I do best.

Now, I didn't write specifically about 2008.  Nostrodamus I am not.  But I wrote about 2006 in terms of realigning elections, and I said that what was an overlooked key to them was two consecutive wave elections in the House.  Well, it's pretty obvious what that means.  read more »

Since Chris has put out his predictions today (here and here), I think I should follow up with my own assessment, just to get you really jazzed. Some caveats on my predictions:

• I, of course, look at numbers- polling, early voting, etc.- when making my predictions. But I also rely on instinct and emotion, which is why I would never suggest people make big bets on my predictions. There are certain races where my head tells me one thing but my heart absolutely won't let me predict a loss.

• I find myself torn between not wanting to be too optimistic on the one hand, and on the other hand thinking all this enthusiasm and field work is going to allow us to really roll up some big numbers. My predictions here are more the former than the latter.

Here is my final assessment on the state of the elections right now:  read more »

I'm missing the Phillies parade for this, but I have to keep writing about it. I'm sticking by my Obama projection.

Explanation in the extended entry.
First, McCain has conceded 203 electoral votes to Obama. That is, in states where both Kerry and Gore won, McCain isn't running any ads in states worth 203 electoral votes. He is ran about 24K of ads in Maine last week, but the RNC pulled out and Pollser.com shows Obama ahead by 16.9% in the state. So, I'll mark Maine down in the Obama column, too, giving him 207. Here is a look at four other states that puts Obama up to 238:

IA, MN, NH, and WI Polls 10/24-10/30  read more »

Barack Obama has won the 2008 Presidential Election.

Yes, you read that right. And no, I am not joking.

People will probably say that I am calling the election too early, which could depress turnout. People might say that I am taking too much for granted, which is especially bad for a committeeperson in West Philadelphia. People might say that I am simply being foolish, because there is time left and a lot can change in four days. For these people, I have five quick points (more in the extended entry).  read more »