Michigan

The vote on Senator Lieberman's chairmanship will be held tomorrow. Even though it will take place behind closed doors and without a roll call vote, you can still make your voice heard by signing the Just Say No To Joe petition at FDL. Or, you could directly call a member of the Democratic Steering committee:

Debbie Stabenow, Michigan - Chairwoman (202) 224-4822
Harry Reid, Nevada (202) 224-3542
John Kerry, Massachusetts (202) 224-2742
Daniel Inouye, Hawaii (202) 224-3934
Robert Byrd, West Virginia (202) 224-3954
Edward Kennedy, Massachusetts (202) 224-4543
Joe Biden, Delaware (202) 224-5042
Patrick Leahy, Vermont (202) 224-4242
Chris Dodd, Connecticut (202) 224-2823
Tom Harkin, Iowa (202) 224-3254
Max Baucus, Montana (202) 224-2651
Richard Durbin, Illinois (202) 224-2152
Kent Conrad, North Dakota (202) 224-2043  read more »

Electoral College: Obama 291, McCain 160 Toss-up 87 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 51.6%--44.6% McCain


Dark Blue (273): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (18): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (87): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (28): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (132): McCain +6.0% or more

Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/28-11/02
States not shown are further either direction  read more »

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 7 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 7  read more »

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 7 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 7  read more »

Note: I inadvertantly posted a shortened version of this yesterday--and somehow LOST the original version, to boot.  So I'm replacing the earlier diary with a re-creation of the original.

Sure, we know that the idea of a vast conspiracy of individual illegal voters stealing our democracy is delusional. But just how delusional?

Well, by one simple metric the answer is 100%.  The type of voter fraud that Republicans are alleging is known as "voter impersonation"-someone shows up to vote pretending to be someone else.  That sort of voter fraud is virtually non-existent.  I say "virtually," since it's really not possible to be 100% sure, but suffice it to say that when Mickey Mouse gets registered to vote, he never shows up to cast a ballot.

But we can look at this through another lens: How much voter suppression can alter an election, and how often does that happen?  read more »

In comments Friday to Chris's diary, Presidential Forecast, October 24th , fladem argued that there was a much greater chance of later volatility in the race than people were anticipating, that historically, there was a 50% chance of a 5-point swing or more, which could go either way, and that therefore McCain had a 25% chance of winning, rather than the 3.7% that 538.com is projecting.

It's good to be challenged like this, with a well-considered data-driven argument.  It makes you think more carefully, and not get intellectually lazy.  That said, I think it's pretty clear that fladem is wrong on this one, and I want to quickly run down why.  The reasons range from macro to micro, but most of all, they gain from being mutually reinforcing.  Fladem's argument and my response on the flip.  read more »

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 8 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 8  read more »

Four weeks ago most people in the United States had never heard of ACORN.

But then the entire apparatus of the GOP started a concerted and coordinated campaign of attacks and smears on us, reaching a zenith of sorts when John McCain attacked us during the last Presidential debate in front of 50 million viewers, saying that we “may be destroying the fabric of democracy”.
 read more »

Chris Bowers wrote two posts (here and here) this morning which do a terrific job of analyzing why McCain is targeting Pennsylvania and making other Electoral College decisions. The McCain campaign is truly in a box, and their range of options are narrowing.  read more »

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 8 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 8  read more »

Electoral College: Obama 329, McCain 171 Toss-up 38 (270 to win)
National popular vote: Obama 49.4%--43.5% McCain


(Dark Blue (264): Obama +7.0% or more
Lean Blue (65): Obama +2.6%-+6.9%
White / Toss-up (38): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (20): McCain +2.6%-+6.9%
Dark Red (151): McCain +7.0% or more)

Things still look good. Here is the path to 270:

State by state details. 270 to win, 269 to tie  read more »

In my previous diary, "Mythos, Logos, Racism and the 'Voter Fraud' Fraud", I wrote about why the right is so unconcerned about the factually baseless nature of their claims.  Rather than making an argument about facts, I argued, they are making an argument about the nature of the world as it should be according their own narrow-minded views.  The world of facts is the world of logos, and they are operating from the world of mythos. As Karen Armstrong explains in The Battle for God:

Myth only became a reality when it was embodied in cult, rituals, and ceremonies which worked aesthetically upon worshippers, evoking within them a sense of sacred significance and enabling them to apprehend the deeper currents of existence.

What they are doing with their voter-fraud claims is, quite simply, a form of myth-making.  read more »

Okay, so I got a little excited the morning after Wednesday's debate. I'll go back to my old dour don't-count-on-anything-until-it's-over self today.

As Chris wrote here, we seem to have settled into a pretty consistent pattern on the Presidential race, and absent some big new development will probably stay pretty close to a 5-6 point national lead. Assuming that, and even assuming we drop a couple of points in the national numbers, here's my current state assessment. (Per usual, my state assessments are based on not just polling, but registration numbers, early voting numbers, Party/campaign organization, outside group work, historical voting patterns, etc.)  read more »

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 8 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 8  read more »

Electoral College: Obama 349, McCain 169 Toss-up 20 (270 to win)
National popular vote: Obama 50.4%--42.2% McCain


(Dark Blue (276): Obama +7.0% or more
Lean Blue (73): Obama +2.6%-+6.9%
White / Toss-up (20): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (29): McCain +2.6%-+6.9%
Dark Red (140): McCain +7.0% or more)

Only 20 days left, and Obama's lead remains extremely solid. Currently, he goes over 270 with Virginia, which he leads by an average of 7.0% across the three polls conducted in that state this week. Overall, Obama leads by 4.0% or more in states worth 338 electoral votes. He is also outspending McCain and the RNC by a 3-1 margin in paid media.  read more »