Montana

The vote on Senator Lieberman's chairmanship will be held tomorrow. Even though it will take place behind closed doors and without a roll call vote, you can still make your voice heard by signing the Just Say No To Joe petition at FDL. Or, you could directly call a member of the Democratic Steering committee:

Debbie Stabenow, Michigan - Chairwoman (202) 224-4822
Harry Reid, Nevada (202) 224-3542
John Kerry, Massachusetts (202) 224-2742
Daniel Inouye, Hawaii (202) 224-3934
Robert Byrd, West Virginia (202) 224-3954
Edward Kennedy, Massachusetts (202) 224-4543
Joe Biden, Delaware (202) 224-5042
Patrick Leahy, Vermont (202) 224-4242
Chris Dodd, Connecticut (202) 224-2823
Tom Harkin, Iowa (202) 224-3254
Max Baucus, Montana (202) 224-2651
Richard Durbin, Illinois (202) 224-2152
Kent Conrad, North Dakota (202) 224-2043  read more »

We've all seen this county-level map, showing how isolated the shift toward the GOP was since 2004, against the much broader pro-Obama tide:

But this past week, Professor Charles Franklin, of Political Arithmetik and Pollster.com, has added considerably more to the picture of how broad Obama's win was, first by looking at race, then by looking at different demographic groups.  Details on the flip.  read more »

This has been a good election for map lovers.  The New York Times has a great set of graphics that shows not only results but changes from the previous four elections.

I've put together a few cartograms and gone back to the 1988 election to see what changes we've had in the last 20 years.

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A McClatchy News Service article on Yahoo News wonders how President-elect Obama will use his "Internet Army" once he gets to D.C.

I'm one of the 3.1 million Americans who signed on with My Barack Obama to make phone calls, knock on doors and donate money. Some of the toughest work was back before the Democratic caucus in March, which is when I signed up. Especially true at my house, with me and my cell phone in one room and Chris and her cell in another. I called for Obama; she called for Clinton.

But phone calling is only part of the equation. This Obama Internet Army may be a key ally to the president once he's inaugurated. According to the McClatchy article:

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An article in today's Casper Star-Tribune notes that 65 percent of Wyoming voters cast their ballots for McCain. That is the largest McCain margin of any state save Oklahoma, which came in at 66 percent. Wyoming voted more red than our redder-than-red Rocky Mountain neighbors Idaho and Utah. In Idaho, McCain got 62 percent of the vote and Obama got 36 percent. In Utah, 63 percent supported McCain; 34 percent were for Obama.
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National Popular Vote (108M votes in): Obama 52%-47% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 364--160 McCain


Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.

State	Reporting	Obama%	McCain%	EVs
Missouri	98%	49%	50%	11
Montana	75%	47%	50%	3

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I'll have more detailed thoughts later, but right now I just want to say that I feel, well, humbled at the sublime face of promise and history. Something very good happened tonight. I'll write about it for ages. Right now, it is too overwhelming.

Obama looks good to win Indiana, Montana and Missouri. Jim Martin is in trouble in Georgia. Al Franken tails by 1% with 61% reporting. Better Democrats are on a roll in the House. This is an open thread.

National Popular Vote (98M votes in): Obama 51%-48% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 353--160 McCain


Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.

State	Reporting	Obama%	McCain%	EVs
Indiana	97%	50%	49%	11
Missouri	86%	48%	50%	11
Montana	34%	51%	46%	3

 read more »

National Popular Vote (11% Reporting): Obama 50%-40% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 264--147 McCain


Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.  read more »

In my nearly final presidential forecast, I give the following breakdown:

1. Obama at 338 minimum: Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia.
   
2. Three toss-ups: Missouri, North Carolina and North Dakota are the only remaining toss-ups, in that polls yet to be released could still flip those states.

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I took a vacation day for Nov. 4 so I can get out the vote for Wyoming Democratic candidates. In 2006, I took the day off to be an election judge. In 2004, I was a pollwatcher for the entire day. Not everyone can get a day off, I know. If you can, there are national, state and local candidates who need your help.

For an overview, go to the Wyoming Democratic Party web site at http://www.wyomingdemocrarts.com/

Democrats running for the two U.S. Senate seats are Chris Rothfuss of Laramie, running against Sen. Mike Enzi, and Gillette's Nick Carter, running against Sen. John Barrasso. Contact their campaigns. See what they need today and tomorrow.
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Electoral College: Obama 291, McCain 160 Toss-up 87 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 51.6%--44.6% McCain


Dark Blue (273): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (18): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (87): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (28): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (132): McCain +6.0% or more

Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/28-11/02
States not shown are further either direction  read more »

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 7 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 7  read more »

Obama has inched up in the tracking polls for the third straight day, and he now leads by 6% according to Pollster.com with less than 77 hours before the polls close in all swing states. (Iowa is the last "swing state" to close, if you can call Iowa a swing state, anyway. Part of Montana closes at 11:00 p.m. eastern). So, McCain has to gain a full 1% on Obama every thirteen hours between now and then in order to win. That means that McCain has to flip about 100,000 voters every hour, or three every second, in order to tie Obama. Best of all, he can only target 70% of the electorate for these votes, because 30% is already spoken for.

More in the extended entry.  read more »

I'm really not temperamentally suited to being any better than any of you at making number-crunching prediction this close to the election.  Yeah, I'll toss some numbers out--maybe.  But my heart isn't it.  I'm not interested in being right.  I'm interested in dreaming big, making impossible predictions.  Which is where October 2006 comes in.  Because that's when I first let my thoughts about 2008 start to slip out... thoughts that had been seriously brewing since Katrina, 13 months earlier.  Because that's what I do best.

Now, I didn't write specifically about 2008.  Nostrodamus I am not.  But I wrote about 2006 in terms of realigning elections, and I said that what was an overlooked key to them was two consecutive wave elections in the House.  Well, it's pretty obvious what that means.  read more »