Ohio

The United States saw dramatic increases in voting from traditionally underrepresented groups, including minorities and young voters, according to a new analysis released this week by Project Vote. If borne out by systematic analysis of the voter rolls, this change in the electorate is evidence of the power of successful voter registration drives and an indication of the strong inclination of voters to participate in the process when candidates address their issues.  read more »

Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters

Weekly Voting Rights News Update

By Erin Ferns

Following an historic turnout in the 2008 election comes a flurry of election reform agendas from both sides of the battle over voting rights. Since November 4, some state lawmakers have seized on the success of early voting and Election Day Registration (EDR) as models for facilitating voter registration, while others appear to have been threatened by the heightened turnout and inspired to introduce restrictive voter ID and proof-of-citizenship bills for the 2009 legislative session.  read more »

Four year ago, as we Democrats were on the short end of a Republican trifecta, we had to engage in soul-searching similar to what Republicans face now. The conclusion Democrats arrived at was that our problems were mainly non-ideological and related to strategy and infrastructure. This conclusion could be seen with the DNC's election of Howard Dean on a fifty-state strategy platform, in the papers produced by NDN with their New Politics Institute, and also in the netroots as perhaps best exemplified with Crashing the Gate.  read more »

What do you do after a huge number of new swing-district Democrats win office promising to reform NAFTA? Apparently, if you are D.C. Democrats, you do this:

Obama May Delay Nafta Overhaul, in Victory for Caterpillar, GE

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama, who threatened during the presidential campaign to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement unless he could renegotiate it, may delay reworking the accord...

Nafta is a powerful symbol because of its unpopularity. More than half of American voters polled in June by Rasmussen Reports favored renegotiating the agreement...

"We saw more candidates campaigning on fair trade than in anytime in history," said Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, a critic of the Bush administration's free-trade agenda.

 read more »

Part three of my continuing series on the five congressional campaigns with undecided outcomes--Georgia Senate, Minnesota Senate, California 4th, Louisiana 4th, and Ohio 15th--can be found in the extended entry. There are important updates on all five campaigns.
As with before, here is the current balance of partisan power in Congress:

Senate
56 Democrats
40 Republicans
2 Independents
2 Undecided

House
257 Democrats
175 Republicans

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Here is the current balance of power in Congress:

Senate
56 Democrats
40 Republicans
2 Independents
2 Undecided

House
257 Democrats
175 Republicans
3 Undecided

These numbers are a little bit different than the ones you might be seeing at most election results sites. The reason is that I am allocating the Alaska Senate race, Louisiana's 2nd congressional district, and Virginia's 5th congressional district all to Democrats. I don't consider the ongoing counting or runoffs in those districts to have any realistic chance to change the outcome.  read more »

This question occurred to me as I looked at some previous presidential elections. Did you know, for instance, that the Nixon-Humphrey race was very close? It was, at least in the popular vote count: 31.8 million votes for Richard Nixon, 31.3 million for Hubert Humphrey. But Nixon won the electoral college in a blowout: 301 to 191. The native Californian won that state as well as other population centers such as Illinois and Ohio while losing Texas (oh how times have changed in 40 years). But he ran up the score on Humphrey by winning a bunch of small-population states that had more electors than they "deserved" if it was based on population alone.  read more »

With the Alaska Senate campaign turning heavily in favor of Democrat Mark Begich, in the extended entry I provide a run-down of the five closest campaigns that have still not been called, who is likely to win each campaign, and what it means for the overall balance of power. All of that, plus election forecasting notes can be found in the extended entry.
Here is the best of what's left:

Election Run-offs  read more »

I have been horrified at all the stories on the bailout, the lack of transparency, the utter corruption, the insider dealing, the contempt for the public, but I haven't been able to bring it all into a package to tell the story of what's going on.  Naomi Klein describes it in a must-read Rolling Stone article called 'The New Trough'.  The bailout hasn't forced banks to lend and it's not clear what the ultimate outcome is, but just one factoid is remarkable enough.

Party leaders on Capitol Hill were supposed to name a special oversight commission to check how the bailout was using its legal authorities, according to the law. But over a month has passed without a single name put forward.

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This has been a good election for map lovers.  The New York Times has a great set of graphics that shows not only results but changes from the previous four elections.

I've put together a few cartograms and gone back to the 1988 election to see what changes we've had in the last 20 years.

 read more »

Since the election, quite a few comments on Open Left have been some variation on the following:

Can't we just be happy and enjoy this victory for a while?

In another episode of simple answers to simple questions, let me field this one: No.

After eight long years of waiting, this is our chance to pass good legislation. And no, we can't wait a little while longer to ask for it. I have waited eight years to ask for it, and I don't want to wait any longer  We have to ask now. I have no intention of just running oppositional campaigns during this administration, but I also have no intention of just supporting Obama's legislative priorities without pursuing others in which I am interested. Nothing you want will pass unless you first ask for it, and then try for it. And this, after eight years of waiting, is our first chance to do so.  read more »

With Missouri and Nebraska-02 seemingly going to McCain, it seems the final electoral count will by Obama 364--174 McCain. Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. When looking to stretch the map, Indiana and North Carolina are the big prizes.

In the Senate, Democrats have 54 seats, plus Bernie Sanders, with four campaigns (Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota and Oregon) still undecided. We need three of the four to win the Employee Free Choice Act. One or two will probably be enough to pass Obama's legislation. There is still a lot of fighting to be done in the Senate. Expect a recount in more than one of these states.

In the House, we are at 258 seats, with AK-AL, CA-04, ID-01, NJ-03, WA-08 and, maybe, OH-15 still undecided. We seem on course to hit 260 exactly, as per my final House forecast.  read more »

Obama has won Ohio per MSNBC. The election is over. Obama will be the next President.

YES!!!!!!!!

Update: Obama wins double, as Colorado tips over the edge.

Update 2: Obama wins triple, with Virginia.

National Popular Vote (98M votes in): Obama 51%-48% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 353--160 McCain


Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.

State	Reporting	Obama%	McCain%	EVs
Indiana	97%	50%	49%	11
Missouri	86%	48%	50%	11
Montana	34%	51%	46%	3

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National Popular Vote (11% Reporting): Obama 50%-40% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 264--147 McCain


Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.  read more »