Texas

This question occurred to me as I looked at some previous presidential elections. Did you know, for instance, that the Nixon-Humphrey race was very close? It was, at least in the popular vote count: 31.8 million votes for Richard Nixon, 31.3 million for Hubert Humphrey. But Nixon won the electoral college in a blowout: 301 to 191. The native Californian won that state as well as other population centers such as Illinois and Ohio while losing Texas (oh how times have changed in 40 years). But he ran up the score on Humphrey by winning a bunch of small-population states that had more electors than they "deserved" if it was based on population alone.  read more »

From today's Beyond Chron.

When SF City Attorney Dennis Herrera sued last week to overrule Proposition 8, I didn't expect him to prevail - as much as I appreciated him trying.  As wrong as it sounds, the initiative process allows a bare majority of California voters to change our state constitution - and with other states having passed similar marriage amendments, I couldn't see how the courts would repeal it.  But after having read Herrera's well-written brief and done some legal research, I am now more optimistic that justice will prevail.  Prop 8 was not your typical "amendment" that merely tinkers with the California Constitution.  It was a drastic revision that deprives a "suspect class" (gays and lesbians) of a fundamental right under equal protection.  read more »

This has been a good election for map lovers.  The New York Times has a great set of graphics that shows not only results but changes from the previous four elections.

I've put together a few cartograms and gone back to the 1988 election to see what changes we've had in the last 20 years.

 read more »

The two-year presidential campaign may have ended Tuesday night, but some tensions are apparently still running high in Tarrant County and Texas after Barack Obama’s election.

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 7 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 7  read more »

So, John McCain has taken to calling Barack Obama a "socialist".  Why?  Because Obama wants to "redistribute" the wealth.  Of course, every time you tax someone, you redistribute wealth.  And every time that government spends some money that benefits someone, that, too, redistributes wealth.  By McCain's criteria, every government that ever existed in human history was "socialist."  You might think that's sort of a whacked-out extremist position, somewhere two football fields to the right of the John Birch Society.  And you'd be right. Because by John McCain's standards, I'd like to introduce you to four of the most prominent members of the Republican Socialists of America:

Join me on the flip, and I'll tell about them.  read more »

Since Chris has put out his predictions today (here and here), I think I should follow up with my own assessment, just to get you really jazzed. Some caveats on my predictions:

• I, of course, look at numbers- polling, early voting, etc.- when making my predictions. But I also rely on instinct and emotion, which is why I would never suggest people make big bets on my predictions. There are certain races where my head tells me one thing but my heart absolutely won't let me predict a loss.

• I find myself torn between not wanting to be too optimistic on the one hand, and on the other hand thinking all this enthusiasm and field work is going to allow us to really roll up some big numbers. My predictions here are more the former than the latter.

Here is my final assessment on the state of the elections right now:  read more »

AUSTIN — President Bush's political resiliency in his home state has eroded significantly over his nearly eight years in the White House, with Texans joining the rest of the nation in registering sharp disapproval of his job performance as the nation's chief executive, according to a newly released statewide poll.

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 7 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 7  read more »

Electoral College: Obama 338, McCain 157 Toss-up 43 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 50.6%--43.9% McCain


Dark Blue (311): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (27): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (43): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (26): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (131): McCain +6.0% or more

Targeting and Swing State Chart
States not shown are 12.0% or more in either direction  read more »

Cross-posted on Huffington Post

This election year is a wild one compared to most of the straight ahead, target the same nine states in the Presidential, target five or six Senate races, target 15-20 House races, focus on the same predictable frequent voting swing voters elections of the past 20 years. The quote of the weekend, maybe the most fun quote of the election, came from a Republican operative saying, "There are no safe Republican seats in this election. That doesn't mean we're going to lose them all, but there is no election we couldn't lose." Wow. It's like the 50 State Strategy on steroids.

So while there is still a slim chance McCain could pull out a miracle (Obama or Biden say something dumb, McCain cuts the national lead by a few points, a bigger Bradley effect then we thought, and we lose all the key swing states by narrow margins-unlikely, yes, but not impossible), the main operative question now in Congressional and Senate races is how big is the wave?  read more »

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 8 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 8  read more »

I'm just generally tired.  It's been a long election season, and the tension is only going up as the randomly stupid and mean dirty tricks emerge.  But a landslide seems like it's coming, and I'm genuinely getting excited.

• The landslide is on our doorsteps.

• Here's the Courage campaign.

  "This is part of a pattern of intimidation by the Mormon Church to raise money to pass Proposition 8 and dictate public policy to Californians," said Rick Jacobs, Chair of Courage Campaign Issues Committee. "We call on President-Prophet Thomas Monson to condemn LDS member Mr. Mark Jansson and the Proposition 8 campaign's blackmail of businesses.

 read more »

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 8 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 8  read more »

On October 17, ACORN responded to attacks by Senator John McCain by issuing a report, "ACORN and John McCain: The Real Story of the Financial Crisis 1999-2008".  The gist of the report is quite simple: ACORN has been fighting predatory lending practices for 10 years, and John McCain has not.  Hence, the idea that ACORN is responsible for such practices, and the negative conseequences they've had for our financial system is ludicrous.  This is not a hard claim for journalists to double-check for themselves, particularly since the difference is so stark, and I do so myself on the flip, along with reporting on ACORN's report itself.

But before getting to that, I want to say a word about the failure of the traditional media.  This is an open-and-shut case.  read more »