Virginia

During the campaign, I wrote a number of diaries about changing electoral college maps, and how they fall into families.  I even projected how the map this year might turn out, based on extreme conditions.  We fell slightly short of the high-tide mark, but still saw considerable change--so much so that the map of this election really doesn't closely resemble any other.  The closest resemblance, all considered is to 1992, and the striking thing about it is that--aside from Montana and Omaha--the differences are almost entirely concentrated in the Southern and Border states:

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Part three of my continuing series on the five congressional campaigns with undecided outcomes--Georgia Senate, Minnesota Senate, California 4th, Louisiana 4th, and Ohio 15th--can be found in the extended entry. There are important updates on all five campaigns.
As with before, here is the current balance of partisan power in Congress:

Senate
56 Democrats
40 Republicans
2 Independents
2 Undecided

House
257 Democrats
175 Republicans

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We've all seen this county-level map, showing how isolated the shift toward the GOP was since 2004, against the much broader pro-Obama tide:

But this past week, Professor Charles Franklin, of Political Arithmetik and Pollster.com, has added considerably more to the picture of how broad Obama's win was, first by looking at race, then by looking at different demographic groups.  Details on the flip.  read more »

Here is the current balance of power in Congress:

Senate
56 Democrats
40 Republicans
2 Independents
2 Undecided

House
257 Democrats
175 Republicans
3 Undecided

These numbers are a little bit different than the ones you might be seeing at most election results sites. The reason is that I am allocating the Alaska Senate race, Louisiana's 2nd congressional district, and Virginia's 5th congressional district all to Democrats. I don't consider the ongoing counting or runoffs in those districts to have any realistic chance to change the outcome.  read more »

This has been a good election for map lovers.  The New York Times has a great set of graphics that shows not only results but changes from the previous four elections.

I've put together a few cartograms and gone back to the 1988 election to see what changes we've had in the last 20 years.

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As Media Matters pointed out, Brent Bozell is a little confused over whether Obama is a socialist or a Reaganite Conservative.  

Socialist (From the October 27 edition of Fox News' Fox & Friends):

   BOZELL: This is the arrogance, I think, of the Obama campaign, but it's a well-placed arrogance in the sense that they've gone through this entire campaign without being questioned seriously by anyone except for this news network, the Fox News network, which is why they studiously avoid the Fox News network. But when you go through the entirety of the campaign saying the kind of things that you're saying in the debates, where on, for every question, you've got a redistribution of wealth answer, where you've got socialism, where you've got the government controlling every aspect of life.

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With Missouri and Nebraska-02 seemingly going to McCain, it seems the final electoral count will by Obama 364--174 McCain. Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. When looking to stretch the map, Indiana and North Carolina are the big prizes.

In the Senate, Democrats have 54 seats, plus Bernie Sanders, with four campaigns (Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota and Oregon) still undecided. We need three of the four to win the Employee Free Choice Act. One or two will probably be enough to pass Obama's legislation. There is still a lot of fighting to be done in the Senate. Expect a recount in more than one of these states.

In the House, we are at 258 seats, with AK-AL, CA-04, ID-01, NJ-03, WA-08 and, maybe, OH-15 still undecided. We seem on course to hit 260 exactly, as per my final House forecast.  read more »

Key Senate Races

State	Reporting	Dem %	Rep %
Alaska	66%	47%	48%
Georgia	98%	46%	50%
Minnesota	96%	42%	42%
Oregon	45%	47%	47%

Democratic seats: 55 54
Republican seats: 40
Independent seats: 2
Undecided: 4
Pickups: Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia

Update 7: Franken takes the lead: Franken now leads by 1,350 votes or so. Still, get ready for a recount.

Update 6: Minnesota margin now 1,465 votes: Get ready for a recount in Minnesota.  read more »

Obama has won Ohio per MSNBC. The election is over. Obama will be the next President.

YES!!!!!!!!

Update: Obama wins double, as Colorado tips over the edge.

Update 2: Obama wins triple, with Virginia.

National Popular Vote (98M votes in): Obama 51%-48% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 353--160 McCain


Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.

State	Reporting	Obama%	McCain%	EVs
Indiana	97%	50%	49%	11
Missouri	86%	48%	50%	11
Montana	34%	51%	46%	3

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National Popular Vote (11% Reporting): Obama 50%-40% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 264--147 McCain


Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.  read more »

This is it. My final forecasts for 2008:

President
Electoral Vote: Obama 353--185 McCain
National Popular Vote: Obama 52.8%--45.7% McCain


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In my nearly final presidential forecast, I give the following breakdown:

1. Obama at 338 minimum: Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia.
   
2. Three toss-ups: Missouri, North Carolina and North Dakota are the only remaining toss-ups, in that polls yet to be released could still flip those states.

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Electoral College: Obama 291, McCain 160 Toss-up 87 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 51.6%--44.6% McCain


Dark Blue (273): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (18): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (87): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (28): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (132): McCain +6.0% or more

Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/28-11/02
States not shown are further either direction  read more »

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 7 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 7  read more »