Wisconsin

Note: I began writing this before Matt posted his diary.  Below, I look at the short-term problem of how to START spending the money quickly and effectively.  Obviously, the long-term challenge is just as great.  We have to do both.

Conservative hacks may still be attacking the New Deal, but GOP economists, not so much.  Support for a massive stimulus is bipartisan now amongst economists, Bloomberg reports:

Calls for $1 Trillion Stimulus Package Grow as Economy Tumbles

By Rich Miller and Matt Benjamin

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The one thing that isn't shrinking in the U.S.

 read more »

Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters

Weekly Voting Rights News Update

By Erin Ferns

Following an historic turnout in the 2008 election comes a flurry of election reform agendas from both sides of the battle over voting rights. Since November 4, some state lawmakers have seized on the success of early voting and Election Day Registration (EDR) as models for facilitating voter registration, while others appear to have been threatened by the heightened turnout and inspired to introduce restrictive voter ID and proof-of-citizenship bills for the 2009 legislative session.  read more »

At DKos yesterday, Jed L posted the following map in a FP diary "Obama Won 197 Of 196 Battleground EVs": It's a map of supposed "battleground states" from the Washington Post's Dan Balz and Alec Macgillis on June 8, 2008:

As Jed L notes, Obama did indeed win more battleground EVs than the Post had identified just over a week after Obama had clinched the Democratic nomination.  And therein lies a tale quite opposed to the current narrative of a "center-right nation."  read more »

The vote on Senator Lieberman's chairmanship will be held tomorrow. Even though it will take place behind closed doors and without a roll call vote, you can still make your voice heard by signing the Just Say No To Joe petition at FDL. Or, you could directly call a member of the Democratic Steering committee:

Debbie Stabenow, Michigan - Chairwoman (202) 224-4822
Harry Reid, Nevada (202) 224-3542
John Kerry, Massachusetts (202) 224-2742
Daniel Inouye, Hawaii (202) 224-3934
Robert Byrd, West Virginia (202) 224-3954
Edward Kennedy, Massachusetts (202) 224-4543
Joe Biden, Delaware (202) 224-5042
Patrick Leahy, Vermont (202) 224-4242
Chris Dodd, Connecticut (202) 224-2823
Tom Harkin, Iowa (202) 224-3254
Max Baucus, Montana (202) 224-2651
Richard Durbin, Illinois (202) 224-2152
Kent Conrad, North Dakota (202) 224-2043  read more »

Electoral College: Obama 291, McCain 160 Toss-up 87 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 51.6%--44.6% McCain


Dark Blue (273): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (18): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (87): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (28): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (132): McCain +6.0% or more

Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/28-11/02
States not shown are further either direction  read more »

The Wall Street Journal tells us what most Americans already know, but most politicians, operatives and reporters in D.C. apparently still find shocking: Namely, that people don't like rigged trade deals that ship their jobs overseas, and are willing to vote against politicians who help pass those trade deals. Who woulda thunk it?

The Journal focuses in on Democrat Jeff Merkley's anti-NAFTA campaign in Oregon, which I wrote about in an earlier newspaper column - but the change in the trade debate goes way beyond one or two senate races. Even the most ardent free-trade fundamentalists are feeling the heat.

The best most eye-popping example is from Mikwaukee Journal-Sentinel today:

In his fifth term, U.S. Rep.

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I'm missing the Phillies parade for this, but I have to keep writing about it. I'm sticking by my Obama projection.

Explanation in the extended entry.
First, McCain has conceded 203 electoral votes to Obama. That is, in states where both Kerry and Gore won, McCain isn't running any ads in states worth 203 electoral votes. He is ran about 24K of ads in Maine last week, but the RNC pulled out and Pollser.com shows Obama ahead by 16.9% in the state. So, I'll mark Maine down in the Obama column, too, giving him 207. Here is a look at four other states that puts Obama up to 238:

IA, MN, NH, and WI Polls 10/24-10/30  read more »

As everyone knows, John McCain and the GOP have been attacking ACORN for weeks.  We've been pretty successful in recent weeks debunking their unfounded claims, but the traditional media's been so complicit in facilitating the attacks that they've largely missed the greater threat to a free and fair election this year: voter suppression and intimidation.

Already, reports from around the U.S. confirm the fact that voters are facing active campaigns to prevent their participation at the polls, coordinated by partisan operatives and now, insidiously involving law enforcement agencies at all levels, from the local all the way to the Department of Justice.  read more »

It happened in 2004 and 2006, and it may be happening in 2008

In the 2008 election Americans may once again be seeing law enforcement turned into a tool of voter suppression.

It is illegal for law enforcement agents to use their authority to attempt to intimidate or suppress the vote. Section 11(b) of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) of 1965 states that no person “whether acting under color of law or otherwise,” shall intimidate, threaten, or coerce any individual for  voting or attempting to vote, or for attempting to assist others to vote. Section 12 of the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) of 1993  provides for criminal penalties against any person who intimidates or attempts to intimidate any person for registering to vote, voting, or attempting to register or vote.  read more »

Electoral College: Obama 338, McCain 168 Toss-up 32 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 49.8%--44.0% McCain


Dark Blue (311): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (27): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (32): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (37): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (131): McCain +6.0% or more

Swing State Chart
States not shown are further  either direction  read more »

There is no question that the tracking polls have tightened compared to where they were from October 21st through October 27th (though not from where they were from October 15th through October 20th). However, I just did the 2:00 p.m. update to the Presidential Forecast, and state polling has pushed Obama out to his most secure lead of the entire campaign. And I added a lot of polls:

Five new Pennsylvania polls, four new Ohio polls, two new Florida polls,  plus one new poll each from Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin added. Obama drops slightly in Florida, holds steady in Ohio, and improves everywhere else.

Obama's state by state situation is improving, even as the Pollster.com national tracker has dropped from Obama +8.8% on Saturday (his all-time peak) to Obama +5.8% today.  read more »

Electoral College: Obama 338, McCain 157 Toss-up 43 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 50.6%--43.9% McCain


Dark Blue (311): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (27): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (43): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (26): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (131): McCain +6.0% or more

Targeting and Swing State Chart
States not shown are 12.0% or more in either direction  read more »

National tracking polls are pointing down today. However, swing state polls are pointing up. Which is correct? My instinct tells me it is statistical noise in both directions, and that Obama's lead continues to hover around 7.0%. Obama never actually led by 8%, and even now his lead has not dropped to 6%. A look at swing state polls conducted entirely since October 23rd, which matches up very closely to the current tracking poll range, suggests that the 7.0% thesis is correct:

More in the extended entry.
Swing State Chart, 10/23-10/27
States not shown here are further in either direction  read more »

Electoral College: Obama 338, McCain 157 Toss-up 43 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 50.9%--43.5% McCain


(Dark Blue (286): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (52): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (43): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (26): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (131): McCain +6.0% or more)

Targeting and Swing State Chart
States not shown here are further in either direction  read more »

Electoral College: Obama 322, McCain 157 Toss-up 59 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 51.0%--43.4% McCain


(Dark Blue (282): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (40): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (59): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (26): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (131): McCain +6.0% or more)

Targeting and Swing State Chart
States not shown here are further in either direction  read more »